# Episode 018: Can Miracles Happen?

Before we question whether the miracles of Christianity happened, in this episode we question whether miracles in general *can *happen. We look to David Hume, black swans, and Bayes' Theorem.

Resources:

- An article on Christianity's unique relationship to history.
- David Hume's treatise against miracles and a shortened version.
- Reasonable Faith by William Lane Craig
- Faith and Reason by Ronald Nash
- Miracles by C.S. Lewis

Bayes' Theorem, for those who really want to know:

Pr(M|E&B) / Pr(not-M|E&B) = Pr(M|B) / Pr(not-M|B) x Pr(E|M&B) / Pr(E|not-M&B)

Translation of equation:

Probability that a miracle occurred = Probability of a miracle given our background knowledge **divided by** the probability of not a miracle given our background knowledge **times** the probability of the evidence for the miracle given the miracle occurred and given our background knowledge **divided by** the probability of the evidence given that the miracle did not occur and given our background knowledge.

Whew... Or, another way to think about it:

**The probability that a miracle occurred is a factor of both the intrinsic probability of a miracle and the explanatory power of a miracle to account for the supposed evidence for it.**

Or, just google it.